Amplitude $AMPL had a great IPO in late 2021 and peaked at $80. Then it went to $8 and now changes hands around $12. We see things changing fundamentally from terrible to bad to good. If we're correct in our analysis, the shares will double with further potential to go 4x from here.
This is one of those "great technology" names that inspires enthusiasm but then runs into the ugliness of customers, business, and the market. We've seen this exact scenario play out a few times with companies including Upstart $UPST and Oscar Health $OSCR.
I remember sitting at a fancy party with lots of "smart people" all laughing at the poor souls still working at Oscar Health with the shares at $2. 18 months later the shares were over $20.
Oscar's founders were brilliant technologists who knew nothing about health insurance. The stock reached $35 on the potential to "revolutionize" the industry and reached $2 on the realization that it wouldn't be easy.
Upstart had a similar path in the bank lending space. Upstart peaked at an astounding $400 before bottoming at $13 and rebounding to $88. This is what can happen when a stock transitions from "technology leadership with business aspirations" to an actual business.
It's important to note that these companies had substantially leapfrogged every other company in the world from a technology standpoint but they had not yet had to deal with the ugly reality of selling, supporting and growing a business. Worst of all there are these awful people called "customers" that couldn't care less about the elegance of your technology stack or your "vision" around the product.
But product cycles do happen and when they do tend to dominate a portion of technology industry and result in major market share gains for the company in the best position.
This is where we may well find ourselves with Amplitude. Some major players, such as Google, have given them a rare opportunity to transition into a dominant player in customer and product intelligence.
