Market Consensus: The market isn’t sure what it wants right now. Half of the largest global IPO deals of 2021 are now trading below the deal price. We’ve got six deals on the calendar that expect to price in December. It looks like a bunch of potential deals have been pushed to 1Q2022.

Last Week: No deals were priced last week due to a combination of the holiday and a pervasive market decline in the face of higher interest rates and the potential impact of a new COVID strain. Markets have recovered sharply leading some to celebrate another “BTD” and coming “Santa Claus rally” but as we all know we just have to see.

I did try to short the Reg A+ deal AeroClean (AERC) which got over $100/share in what may have been peak insanity. Alas, there were no shares available for shorting and it has declined rapidly to the current $12.70.

This Week: The big deals this week are Nu Holdings (NU) which is a digital bank in Brazil and HashiCorp (HCP) a cloud infrastructure provider in the data center space. Next week we also have Samsara (IOT) which an IoT solutions developer.

There are some small deals too and they are shown in the current IPO sheet along with presentations added to the download page.

The challenge for these larger deals is valuation. NU already lowered their range from $10-11 to $8-9 but it’s still at a 29x EV/Sales multiple. HCP is even worse at 45x EV/S. IOT is at 28x EV/S.

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance (REFI) could be interesting. We don’t do commercial mortgage REIT much but this one is targeting the cannabis sector which remains underserved due to existing regulations. It’s a small deal and the CEO is investing in the IPO which is quite notable.

Pipeline: A few new filings like Phoenix Motor (PEV) are worth watching. Intel (INTC) also announced they would be doing an IPO for MobileEye and that’s going to be a big one.

New Street Coverage: We’ve got some coming up. The one I’m digging into is UserTesting (USER).

Lockups Off: We will have some more like ONON which has been a moon shot. I also see that WEAV is coming off and had a so-so quarter yesterday. That one could be weak going into YE and even in January.

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