Market Consensus: It’s too early to fully assess Q3 estimates but so far things are on script – analyst estimates are rising again, misses are mostly due to supply chain problems, costs are up, energy continues to outperform. Generally all constructive for getting deals done.
Last Week: We highlighted GitLab (GTLB) and it was the star of the show pricing way above its original range and rocketing up to $106. The valuation defies description. I was surprised IHS Holdings (IHS) did so poorly so may need to revisit that one.
This Week: There are 11 deals on the calendar this week. Use the sheet below for the full listing. The ones I’ll be digging into are:
- Enfusion (ENFN) and P10 (PX) are both in the “FinTech for investments” category which is an attractive area. They are both in the $2B market value range. They are small but very profitable and their products tend to be “stickier” than some other FinTech offerings.
- Two very “retail friendly” deals are ones to keep an eye on – Portillo’s (PTLO) aka “The Dog House” and Vita Coco (COCO). Dutch Bros (BROS) came a month ago at $23 and is up big at $57. That level of enthusiasm translates into a 25x sales valuation for this coffee chain.
- Finally another “for fun” deal to dig into is Stronghold Digital Mining (SDIG) which is combining coal refuse power plants and BTC mining to create a kind of “ESG BTC” play. They get credit for creativity.
Our Current IPOs sheet is updated every Monday (free) and has a link to the roadshow downloads (for annual subscribers.)
New Notes: I’m still traveling and attending some events (Grant’s in NYC this week) so will need to catch up on some notes we are close to publishing next week.
Pipeline: Filings keep rolling in and a few look interesting – Lulu’s (LVLU) in online fashion, UserTesting (USER) and Expensify (EXFY) in SaaS, and the venerable Hertz has filed a deal on behalf of selling-stockholders. (I do own the Hertz long-term warrants (HTZZW).)
New Street Coverage: There will be a flood of new coverage this week including AKA, FRSH, RELY, TOST, VBNK, CWAN, and HLTH. We’re involved in a few of those – TOST, VBNK, CWAN. HLTH is an interesting name that didn’t have a great IPO.
Lockups Off: Lockups this week included LAW, ZY, NPCE, AGTI, IMPL, RAIN, SWIM, TMCI, and OB. I might try something different with the lockups to help us visualize which ones might be vulnerable and/or opportunities. Next week I’ll put a link here with the format to test it.
Parting Thoughts: Lots of investors are considering how ongoing supply-chain issues and increasing costs will impact companies. The data I’ve seen suggests this will remain a theme for most of the next year. If earnings estimates shift a lot then prices will follow. At the end of this week, many more Q3 reports will be digested.